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Trader profile

flawfence

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$246.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate50.8%439 settled · past 90 days106 open · 33% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$26.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded336Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−4.7% / $95% interval −33.8% to +24.4%648 settled fills · 90d window
Crypto
+1.2%n=42 settled
Politics
−3.0%n=285 settled
Sports
−7.6%n=311 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 50.8% · Decided 439 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$800.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.8M
Concentration
10.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
368
Showing the largest 8 of 368
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NoValue$82.5KPnL+$1.1KAvg69.6¢Current70.5¢117,065.87Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$65.6KPnL+$37.2KAvg25.5¢Current58.9¢111,397.54Shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$61.1KPnL−$12.6KAvg48.9¢Current40.5¢150,781.2Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$57.9KPnL+$3KAvg82¢Current86.5¢66,926.4Shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$49.6KPnL+$1.1KAvg96.9¢Current99.2¢49,999.98Shares
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
YesValue$44.1KPnL+$16.8KAvg61.3¢Current99.2¢44,457.86Shares
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
YesValue$34.8KPnL+$19.3KAvg33.4¢Current75¢46,379.4Shares
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
NoValue$31.6KPnL+$7KAvg77.2¢Current99.4¢31,801.19Shares
Showing 8 of 368 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet flawfence: 50.8% win rate over 439 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −4.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −33.8%, n=648 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Crypto (+1.2% over 42 fills); +$246.4K lifetime P&L, $26.2M traded, updated 2026-09-23.