PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Haradwaith

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$266.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate59.2%54,255 settled · past 90 days4,963 open · 86% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$126.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded2,714Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+21.5% / $95% interval −113.2% to +156.2%51 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+33.8%n=30 settled
Sports
+2.2%n=18 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 59.2% · Decided 54,255 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded2 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$276.5K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$67.9K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
1.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$3.8KPnL+$80Avg80.8¢Current82.5¢4,570.21Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$3.1KPnL−$31Avg69.2¢Current68.5¢4,532.56Shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
NoValue$2.8KPnL−$205Avg52.4¢Current48.9¢5,783.18Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
YesValue$2.6KPnL−$36Avg95.9¢Current94.6¢2,710.9Shares
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
NoValue$2.5KPnL−$27Avg97.6¢Current96.6¢2,626.34Shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$2.5KPnL−$63Avg90.8¢Current88.6¢2,802.94Shares
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
NoValue$2.4KPnL−$87Avg80.3¢Current77.5¢3,134.7Shares
Will “Stateside + Zara Larsson” by PinkPantheress win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
NoValue$2.2KPnL−$37Avg61.5¢Current60.5¢3,592.78Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Haradwaith: 59.2% win rate over 54,255 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +21.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −113.2%, n=51 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+33.8% over 30 fills); −$266.2K lifetime P&L, $126.3M traded, updated 2026-09-24.