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Trader profile

HotChili

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$47.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate22.9%2,267 settled · past 90 days130 open · 60% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$205.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,638Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−8.0% / $95% interval −36.6% to +20.5%125 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−9.0%n=122 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 22.9% · Decided 2,267 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$1.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$585
Concentration
16%
Largest share of value
Positions
152
Showing the largest 8 of 152
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Everton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
YesValue$281PnL+$94Avg0.1¢Current0.2¢187,420.29Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on September 25?
YesValue$242PnL+$232Avg2¢Current48.4¢500Shares
Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
YesValue$197PnL+$66Avg0.1¢Current0.2¢131,272.56Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 26?
YesValue$110PnL+$100Avg2¢Current22¢500Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on September 25?
YesValue$71PnL+$53Avg4¢Current16.5¢427.41Shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on September 26?
YesValue$68PnL+$55Avg5¢Current25.5¢266.2Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on September 25?
YesValue$59PnL+$58Avg1¢Current45¢131.01Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on September 25?
YesValue$43PnL+$42Avg1¢Current47.5¢90.4Shares
Showing 8 of 152 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet HotChili: 22.9% win rate over 2,267 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −8.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −36.6%, n=125 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−9.0% over 122 fills); −$47.1K lifetime P&L, $205.7M traded, updated 2026-09-26.