PolyTrace
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Trader profile

BikesAreTheBikes

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$77KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate38.6%1,450 settled · past 90 days364 open · 37% underwater · 1 hour ago
Lifetime volume$5.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,183Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+5.3% / $95% interval −188.2% to +198.9%39 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+8.4%n=31 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 38.6% · Decided 1,450 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 hour ago
Current position value
$122.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$93.2K
Concentration
7.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,703
Showing the largest 8 of 1,703
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
NoValue$9.6KPnL+$5KAvg48.2¢Current99.6¢9,659.73Shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$9.2KPnL+$1.7KAvg80.9¢Current99.8¢9,197.84Shares
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
NoValue$6.4KPnL+$805Avg77.3¢Current88.5¢7,203.89Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$6KPnL+$888Avg58.4¢Current68.5¢8,830.09Shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$4.3KPnL+$1.1KAvg43¢Current57.5¢7,510.38Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
YesValue$3.4KPnL+$128Avg92¢Current95.6¢3,604.63Shares
No one announced as next James Bond?
YesValue$3.4KPnL−$335Avg25.1¢Current22.9¢15,000Shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
NoValue$3.4KPnL−$289Avg65.7¢Current60.5¢5,541.23Shares
Showing 8 of 1,703 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet BikesAreTheBikes: 38.6% win rate over 1,450 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +5.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −188.2%, n=39 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+8.4% over 31 fills); +$77K lifetime P&L, $5.6M traded, updated 2026-09-24.