PolyTrace
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Trader profile

agagyu

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$30.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate93%43 settled · past 90 days37 open · 18% underwater · 14 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded191Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.3% / $95% interval −476.3% to +441.7%49 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−17.8%n=44 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 93% · Decided 43 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded14 hours ago
Current position value
$76.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$1.8K
Concentration
17.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
37
Showing the largest 8 of 37
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
NoValue$13.8KPnL+$194Avg82.3¢Current83.5¢16,477.4Shares
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
NoValue$13.6KPnL+$220Avg88.1¢Current89.6¢15,195.86Shares
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
NoValue$6.8KPnL+$451Avg85.9¢Current92¢7,348.13Shares
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
NoValue$6.6KPnL+$570Avg83.6¢Current91.5¢7,204.03Shares
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?
NoValue$4.8KPnL+$155Avg89.1¢Current92¢5,271.27Shares
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
NoValue$4.6KPnL−$221Avg80.2¢Current76.5¢6,005.3Shares
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
NoValue$3.6KPnL+$305Avg83.8¢Current91.5¢3,958.94Shares
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NoValue$2.7KPnL−$26Avg85.8¢Current85¢3,167.02Shares
Showing 8 of 37 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet agagyu: 93% win rate over 43 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −17.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −476.3%, n=49 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−17.8% over 44 fills); +$30.8K lifetime P&L, $1.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.