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Trader profile

walnutpeanut

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$6.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate26.5%121 settled · past 180 days10 open · 13% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$9.5M698 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded142Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+2.1% / $95% interval −394.3% to +398.5%36 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+1.3%n=31 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 21 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 26.5% · Decided 121 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$8.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$10.1K
Concentration
24.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
37
Showing the largest 8 of 37
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
NoValue$2KPnL+$350Avg63.9¢Current77.9¢2,507.92Shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NoValue$1.6KPnL−$23Avg71.6¢Current70.5¢2,213.82Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$1.3KPnL−$62Avg75¢Current71.5¢1,774.9Shares
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$939PnL+$54Avg90.5¢Current96.1¢977.56Shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$934PnL+$40Avg40.7¢Current42.5¢2,197.4Shares
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
NoValue$390PnL+$0.79Avg94.8¢Current95¢411.25Shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$378PnL+$62Avg83.1¢Current99.4¢380.24Shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$227PnL+$49Avg78¢Current99.8¢227.16Shares
Showing 8 of 37 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet walnutpeanut: 26.5% win rate over 121 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +2.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −394.3%, n=36 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+1.3% over 31 fills); +$6.5K lifetime P&L, $9.5M traded, updated 2026-09-24.