Last loaded3 hours ago
- Current position value
- $0
- Snapshot cash PnL
- −$14.6K
- Concentration
- — Largest share of value
- Positions
- 54 Showing the largest 8 of 54
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Showing 8 of 54 positions by current value
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Trader profile
smaug21
DirectionalHistorical record
Loss-making historically.
Lifetime PnL−$16.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate47.2%144 settled · past 180 days0 open · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$369.8K541 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded145Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price
How this is computedProfit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.
+6.2% / $95% interval −141.1% to +153.5%31 settled fills · 90d window
- Sports
- +8.2%n=29 settled
A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.
This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.
Measured 18 hours ago
How this record is measured
Win rate 47.2% · Decided 144 · 180d
Observed activity
Where and how this wallet trades
Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.
No category data for this wallet.
No tracked trading behavior yet.
Current holdings
Sources
Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.
Results by category
Sources
Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…
Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.
Recent activity
Whale activity over 30 days
Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.
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Large trades
Recent large trades
Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations
no result — Market settled — no result snapshot for this wallet yet.
$2.6K✗ lost — Market settled and this position lost.
$1K✗ lost — Market settled and this position lost.
$1.1K✗ lost — Market settled and this position lost.
$1.3K✗ lost — Market settled and this position lost.
$3.4KAbout this wallet
Wallet smaug21: 47.2% win rate over 144 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +6.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −141.1%, n=31 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+8.2% over 29 fills); −$16.7K lifetime P&L, $369.8K traded, updated 2026-09-25.