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Trader profile

QMG-SCALAR

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$16.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate82%111 settled · past 180 days17 open · 12% underwater · 5 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded163Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−8.0% / $95% interval −205.9% to +190.0%75 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−3.6%n=51 settled
Politics
−11.2%n=11 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 82% · Decided 111 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded5 hours ago
Current position value
$37.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$10.4K
Concentration
32.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
24
Showing the largest 8 of 24
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$12KPnL+$684Avg93.7¢Current99.4¢12,100Shares
New pandemic in 2026?
NoValue$9.6KPnL+$61Avg93.9¢Current94.5¢10,194.57Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$9.6KPnL+$591Avg90¢Current96¢10,000.01Shares
Iran Nuke before 2027?
NoValue$5.3KPnL+$4Avg95.5¢Current95.6¢5,501.99Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$516PnL+$488Avg3.1¢Current57.4¢900Shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$383PnL+$354Avg3.1¢Current42.5¢900Shares
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$1PnL−$27Avg3.1¢Current0.2¢900Shares
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$0.45PnL−$28Avg3.1¢Current0.1¢900Shares
Showing 8 of 24 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet QMG-SCALAR: 82% win rate over 111 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −8.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −205.9%, n=75 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−3.6% over 51 fills); +$16.4K lifetime P&L, $1.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.