Trader profile
Historical record
Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.
A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.
This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.
Measured 3 hours ago
Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.
Observed activity
Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.
No category data for this wallet.
No tracked trading behavior yet.
Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.
Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.
Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.
Recent activity
Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.
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Large trades
Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations
Wallet MiltonFriedmanHongKong: edge −54.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −81.4%, n=229 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−54.9% over 229 fills); −$728.3K lifetime P&L, $4.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.
