PolyTrace
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Trader profile

cmarx

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$1.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate56.9%137 settled · past 180 days8 open · 21% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$255.7K504 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded142Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.3% / $95% interval −411.8% to +377.2%20 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−20.0%n=17 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 8 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 56.9% · Decided 137 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$13.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$9.7K
Concentration
32.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
42
Showing the largest 8 of 42
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$4.4KPnL+$887Avg79.6¢Current99.4¢4,475.4Shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
NoValue$3.4KPnL−$289Avg64.6¢Current59.5¢5,638.98Shares
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
YesValue$2.8KPnL+$1.6KAvg32.5¢Current77¢3,673.67Shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$2.6KPnL+$240Avg10.4¢Current11.5¢22,516.54Shares
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
NoValue$387PnL+$19Avg94¢Current99¢391.31Shares
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$77PnL−$81Avg62.7¢Current30.5¢252.61Shares
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$42PnL−$23Avg21¢Current13.5¢310Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$29PnL−$352Avg86¢Current6.5¢443.05Shares
Showing 8 of 42 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet cmarx: 56.9% win rate over 137 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −17.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −411.8%, n=20 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−20.0% over 17 fills); −$1.2K lifetime P&L, $255.7K traded, updated 2026-09-24.