PolyTrace
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Trader profile

MRF

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$329.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate48.4%287 settled · past 90 days138 open · 70% underwater · 14 hours ago
Lifetime volume$22.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded484Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+6.1% / $95% interval −7.6% to +19.7%19 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+6.1%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 48.4% · Decided 287 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded14 hours ago
Current position value
$46.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$586.3K
Concentration
22.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
2,025
Showing the largest 8 of 2,025
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YesValue$10.5KPnL+$6.3KAvg37.7¢Current93.3¢11,263.06Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$4.8KPnL+$380Avg73¢Current79.4¢5,999.92Shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$3.7KPnL+$20Avg92¢Current92.5¢4,000Shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$3.5KPnL−$317Avg96.5¢Current88.6¢4,000.41Shares
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$2.9KPnL−$10Avg97.3¢Current97¢3,000.02Shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$2.9KPnL−$24Avg96.4¢Current95.7¢3,000.01Shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
NoValue$1.9KPnL−$778Avg48.9¢Current34.5¢5,412.1Shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$1.4KPnL−$9Avg91.9¢Current91.3¢1,500.01Shares
Showing 8 of 2,025 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet MRF: 48.4% win rate over 287 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +6.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −7.6%, n=19 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+6.1% over 19 fills); +$329.4K lifetime P&L, $22.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.