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Trader profile

Simmelariii

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$33.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Positions repeatedly closed near their entry price6 open · 0% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$12M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded3,037Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−6.3% / $95% interval −19.0% to +6.3%28 settled fills · 90d window
Science
−5.4%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Flat-price round trips dominate this sample, so no win rate is shown.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$4.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$13K
Concentration
65.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
14
Showing the largest 8 of 14
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Down · NoValue$2.7KPnL+$3Avg99.9¢Current100¢2,674Shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 23?
NoValue$695PnL+$0.35Avg99.9¢Current100¢694.9Shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 23?
NoValue$400PnL+$0.38Avg99.9¢Current100¢400.04Shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on September 23?
NoValue$161PnL+$0.08Avg99.9¢Current100¢160.61Shares
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 23?
NoValue$55PnL+$0.03Avg99.9¢Current100¢54.69Shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on September 23?
NoValue$46PnL+$0.02Avg99.9¢Current100¢45.64Shares
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Saint Sinners (BO3) - European Pro League Series 9 Playoffs
Leo Team · YesValue$25PnL+$0.01Avg99.9¢Current100¢25Shares
Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)
SinnersValue$0.99PnL$0Avg99.9¢Current100¢0.99Shares
Showing 8 of 14 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Simmelariii: edge −6.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −19.0%, n=28 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Science (−5.4% over 19 fills); −$33.4K lifetime P&L, $12M traded, updated 2026-09-23.