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Trader profile

frozenriver

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$224.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate22.4%1,347 settled · past 90 days8 open · 61% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$15.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,349Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+36.0% / $95% interval −409.0% to +481.0%11 settled fills · 90d window

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 22.4% · Decided 1,347 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded3 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$2.6K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$191.2K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
66.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$1.7KPnL+$40Avg83.5¢Current85.5¢2,000Shares
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
NoValue$458PnL−$54Avg80¢Current71.5¢640Shares
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
YesValue$170PnL−$70Avg12¢Current8.5¢2,000Shares
Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
YesValue$143PnL+$142Avg0.1¢Current14.3¢1,000Shares
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?
YesValue$70PnL−$20Avg9¢Current7¢1,000Shares
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
YesValue$25PnL−$36Avg6¢Current2.5¢1,000Shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
NoValue$4PnL−$110Avg6.6¢Current0.3¢1,745.92Shares
Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
YesValue$3PnL+$3Avg0.1¢Current0.5¢716.87Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet frozenriver: 22.4% win rate over 1,347 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +36.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −409.0%, n=11 settled fills over 90 days); +$224.4K lifetime P&L, $15.1M traded, updated 2026-09-25.