PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

Contrarian - 7451

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$391.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate80.3%370 settled · past 180 days40 open · 1% underwater · 4 days ago
Lifetime volume$17.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded88Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−20.7% / $95% interval −736.9% to +695.4%27 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−24.0%n=26 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 15 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 80.3% · Decided 370 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 days ago
Current position value
$191K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$332K
Concentration
27.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
102
Showing the largest 8 of 102
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$52.9KPnL+$2.4KAvg95.2¢Current99.9¢53,026.4Shares
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
NoValue$27.3KPnL+$1.7KAvg66.1¢Current70.5¢38,726.82Shares
Trump out as President before 2027?
NoValue$22.5KPnL+$2.3KAvg84.9¢Current94.5¢23,808.27Shares
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
NoValue$20.3KPnL+$2.1KAvg83.9¢Current93.5¢21,698.05Shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
NoValue$15.2KPnL+$3.2KAvg74.6¢Current94.5¢16,081.03Shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$12.2KPnL+$1.6KAvg86.1¢Current99.3¢12,274.42Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$9.4KPnL+$308Avg80.8¢Current83.5¢11,292.3Shares
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$856Avg80.7¢Current95.3¢5,888.84Shares
Showing 8 of 102 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Contrarian - 7451: 80.3% win rate over 370 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −20.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −736.9%, n=27 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−24.0% over 26 fills); −$391.7K lifetime P&L, $17.6M traded, updated 2026-09-21.