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Trader profile

GollumGekko

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$278.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate56.9%648 settled · past 90 days330 open · 56% underwater · 9 hours ago
Lifetime volume$31M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded677Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+21.3% / $95% interval −132.2% to +174.8%229 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+35.9%n=171 settled
Finance
−15.3%n=42 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 56.9% · Decided 648 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded9 hours ago
Current position value
$212.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$101K
Concentration
10.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
792
Showing the largest 8 of 792
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$22.1KPnL+$316Avg92.2¢Current93.5¢23,603.93Shares
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
YesValue$20.2KPnL+$732Avg84.3¢Current87.5¢23,078.65Shares
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$8.4KPnL+$74Avg74.8¢Current75.5¢11,103.02Shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NoValue$7.7KPnL−$49Avg71¢Current70.5¢10,899.99Shares
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
NoValue$6.8KPnL+$45Avg87.8¢Current88.4¢7,665.19Shares
US recession by end of 2026?
NoValue$6.3KPnL+$420Avg86.3¢Current92.5¢6,797.79Shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$56Avg97.2¢Current98.2¢5,731.35Shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YesValue$5.1KPnL+$108Avg83.1¢Current84.9¢6,058.02Shares
Showing 8 of 792 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet GollumGekko: 56.9% win rate over 648 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +21.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −132.2%, n=229 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+35.9% over 171 fills); +$278.9K lifetime P&L, $31M traded, updated 2026-09-23.