PolyTrace
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Trader profile

6862584

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$24KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate81.4%193 settled · past 90 days5 open · 93% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$930.1K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded551Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.0% / $95% interval −176.4% to +172.3%25 settled fills · 90d window
Science
−2.0%n=25 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 3 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 81.4% · Decided 193 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$2.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$162
Concentration
60.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
8
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 25?
NoValue$1.6KPnL−$16Avg97¢Current96¢1,632.99Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 25?
NoValue$798PnL−$49Avg81.8¢Current77¢1,036.28Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 24?
NoValue$202PnL−$8Avg79.9¢Current77¢262.74Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 24?
YesValue$24PnL+$5Avg75¢Current95.5¢25Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 24?
NoValue$2PnL+$0.17Avg85¢Current95.5¢1.67Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 20?
NoValue$0PnL−$0.15Avg79.5¢Current0¢0.19Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 19?
YesValue$0PnL−$87Avg82.8¢Current0¢105Shares
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 23?
YesValue$0PnL−$7Avg7¢Current0¢101.36Shares
All 8 positions shown
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 6862584: 81.4% win rate over 193 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −2.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −176.4%, n=25 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Science (−2.0% over 25 fills); −$24K lifetime P&L, $930.1K traded, updated 2026-09-24.