PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

KiAr

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$1MPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate44.6%1,549 settled · past 90 days0 open · 4 days ago
Lifetime volume$17.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded306Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−30.0% / $95% interval −485.4% to +425.4%16 settled fills · 90d window
Crypto
−25.2%n=14 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 12 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 44.6% · Decided 1,549 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded19 hours ago
Current position value
$1
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.9M
Concentration
40.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
975
Showing the largest 8 of 975
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Down · NoValue$0.45PnL+$0.29Avg34.9¢Current100¢0.45Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Down · NoValue$0.30PnL+$0.13Avg57.4¢Current100¢0.3Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Up · YesValue$0.20PnL+$0.12Avg41.3¢Current100¢0.2Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Down · NoValue$0.16PnL+$0.08Avg50.3¢Current100¢0.16Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
Down · NoValue$0PnL−$44.3KAvg43.2¢Current0¢102,571.61Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Down · NoValue$0PnL−$332Avg51.8¢Current0¢640.61Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Up · YesValue$0PnL−$1.5KAvg26¢Current0¢5,904.47Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Down · NoValue$0PnL−$1.4KAvg28.9¢Current0¢4,778.4Shares
Showing 8 of 975 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet KiAr: 44.6% win rate over 1,549 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −30.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −485.4%, n=16 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Crypto (−25.2% over 14 fills); −$1M lifetime P&L, $17.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.