Trader profile

ethBELIVER

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-23

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$389.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…24 open · 53% underwater · 1 day ago

Lifetime volume$2.7M943 trades · Polymarket

Markets traded47Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

+31.0% / $95% interval −60.4% to +122.3%127 settled fills · 90d window

Finance: +52.7%n=69 settled
Sports: +15.5%n=46 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 11 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded1 day ago

Current position value: $714.7K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$156.5K
Concentration: 68.1%
Positions: 124

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

NoValue$486.6KPnL+$180KAvg50¢Current79.4¢613,248.01Shares

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$126.6KPnL−$180KAvg50¢Current20.7¢613,248.01Shares

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

NoValue$36.1KPnL+$5.5KAvg46.2¢Current54.5¢66,214.1Shares

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

YesValue$15.2KPnL+$2.7KAvg69.7¢Current84.9¢17,928.15Shares

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

NoValue$10.7KPnL+$1.6KAvg61¢Current71.5¢14,987.39Shares

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

YesValue$9.1KPnL+$2.7KAvg45.7¢Current65.5¢13,876.33Shares

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

YesValue$5.7KPnL−$7KAvg13.6¢Current6.1¢93,671.97Shares

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

NoValue$4.4KPnL+$90Avg72¢Current73.5¢6,000Shares

Showing 8 of 124 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

9 hours ago

BUYYES

3 (75 bps) · 40.6¢

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?Open market →$1.1K

9 hours ago

SELLNO

3 (75 bps) · 59.4¢

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?Open market →$1.6K

9 hours ago

BUYNO

Hike–Hike–Pause · 74.8¢

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Open market →$1K

9 hours ago

SELLYES

No change · 33¢

Fed Decision in October?Open market →$5.8K

9 hours ago

BUYNO

No change · 67¢

Fed Decision in October?Open market →$12K

About this wallet

Wallet ethBELIVER: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +31.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −60.4%, n=127 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+52.7% over 69 fills); +$389.1K lifetime P&L, $2.7M traded, updated 2026-09-23.