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Trader profile

AGUGava

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$156.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate60.8%546 settled · past 90 days2 open · 0% underwater · 23 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$17.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded606Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+16.5% / $95% interval −5.7% to +38.6%1,795 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+16.7%n=1,743 settled
Unmapped
+6.9%n=52 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 60.8% · Decided 546 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete23 minutes ago
Current position value
$12.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.5M
Concentration
60.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
288
Showing the largest 8 of 288
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Serbia vs. Greece: O/U 3.5
Under · NoValue$7.5KPnL+$48Avg78¢Current78.5¢9,500Shares
Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Joanna Garland
Xinyu Wang · YesValue$4.9KPnL+$975Avg78¢Current97.5¢5,000Shares
US Boulogne Côte d'Opale vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
Under · NoValue$0PnL−$4.5KAvg59.9¢Current0¢7,500.12Shares
Will Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?
YesValue$0PnL−$2.8KAvg28¢Current0¢10,000Shares
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?
YesValue$0PnL−$5KAvg25¢Current0¢19,999.97Shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10?
YesValue$0PnL−$2.7KAvg58.5¢Current0¢4,650Shares
National Bank Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elina Svitolina
Ekaterina Alexandrova · YesValue$0PnL−$9.3KAvg30.8¢Current0¢30,000Shares
Will HNK Rijeka vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw?
YesValue$0PnL−$5.9KAvg29.6¢Current0¢19,999.64Shares
Showing 8 of 288 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AGUGava: 60.8% win rate over 546 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +16.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −5.7%, n=1,795 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+16.7% over 1,743 fills); −$156.1K lifetime P&L, $17.3M traded, updated 2026-09-24.