politics · resolved market

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Polymarket odds: 40+ 100¢ (+18.1¢/24h), resolved · 48 whale trades/7d · $146.1K tracked whale volume · updated 2026-07-31. Smart-money wallets on PolyTrace.

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100¢40+ · +18.1¢ in 24h

Across the 48 trades loaded here, whale flow is net buying $77.9K — the whole of the last 7 days. 33% of the 48 with a tracked profile are profitable lifetime — treat the direction as weak evidence.

40+100¢+18.1¢ · 24h

30+1.2¢−0.7¢ · 24h

100+0.5¢+0.3¢ · 24h

80+0.3¢no 24h change published

40+0.3¢−0.4¢ · 24h

Signal evidence · 7 days

48 tradesWhale trades ≥$1,000

$6.4KLargest single trade

$122.2KWhale volume on this page

Price & whale activity

80+ over the past 168h

Capital trace

Trader evidence stays attached to every trade. New records appear without reordering the list.

48 of 48 trades

4h0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 99.7¢

now 100¢flat since the trade

$2.6K

18h0xe958…66b7−$16.3K · 66.4%

BUYNO30+ · 99¢

now 98.8¢flat since the trade

$2K

23h0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 99.7¢

now 100¢flat since the trade

$2.4K

1d0x9d73…216b−$99.8K · loss

BUYNO60+ · 99.8¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$1.8K

1d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 99.7¢

now 100¢flat since the trade

$3.7K

1d0x9d73…216b−$99.8K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 99.6¢

now 100¢flat since the trade

$1.3K

1d0x17e3…9ba5+$70.4K · profitable

BUYNO40+ · 99.6¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$2.5K

1d0x68d3…55b0No profile yet · unsynced

BUYNO60+ · 99.7¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$2.5K

1d0x49e9…8f85−$38.1K · 69.2%

BUYNO30+ · 98.8¢

now 98.8¢flat since the trade

$6.4K

1d0x0f2b…665a+$21.3K · 76.7%

SELLNO30+ · 96.5¢

now 98.8¢−2% in their favour

$1.4K

1d0x0f2b…665a+$21.3K · 76.7%

SELLNO40+ · 98.7¢

now 99.8¢−1% in their favour

$3.4K

1d0xcaab…24dd+$110.3K · profitable

BUYNO100+ · 99.8¢

now 99.5¢flat since the trade

$2.2K

1d0xcaab…24dd+$110.3K · profitable

BUYNO100+ · 99.8¢

now 99.5¢flat since the trade

$2.5K

1d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO80+ · 99.6¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$2K

1d0xa576…8678−$1.8K · 82.4%

SELLNO50+ · 99.3¢

now 100¢−1% in their favour

$2.8K

1d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO80+ · 99.6¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$1.4K

1d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO60+ · 99.7¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$1.2K

1d0x1fd0…c6a7−$1.7K · 34.3%

BUYNO40+ · 99.6¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$1.1K

1d0xfd2b…9ff9−$25.6K · 60.7%

BUYNO30+ · 98.3¢

now 98.8¢+1% in their favour

$1.4K

1d0xcaab…24dd+$110.3K · profitable

BUYNO100+ · 99.7¢

now 99.5¢flat since the trade

$1.6K

1d0x5cd5…ac33+$66.1K · profitable

BUYNO80+ · 99.6¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$1.2K

1d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO80+ · 99.5¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$3.6K

1d0xa488…7a0e−$5.9K · 60.7%

BUYNO80+ · 99.5¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$3.6K

1d0xad52…11ac+$60.5K · profitable

SELLNO30+ · 96.9¢

now 98.8¢−2% in their favour

$1.6K

2d0x54a7…881b−$62.7K · loss

BUYNO30+ · 97.8¢

now 98.8¢+1% in their favour

$1.6K

2d0xb26c…0eb0−$4.4K · 60%

BUYNO40+ · 98.7¢

now 99.8¢+1% in their favour

$2.4K

2d0x1fd0…c6a7−$1.7K · 34.3%

BUYNO30+ · 97.3¢

now 98.8¢+2% in their favour

$1.1K

3d0xa108…abd3+$16.8K · 79.1%

BUYNO50+ · 98.6¢

now 100¢+1% in their favour

$3K

3d0xa108…abd3+$16.8K · 79.1%

BUYNO30+ · 96.8¢

now 98.8¢+2% in their favour

$1.5K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 96.9¢

now 100¢+3% in their favour

$1.1K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 97.4¢

now 100¢+3% in their favour

$3.1K

3d0x85a8…9281+$21.5K · 59.7%

BUYNO30+ · 92.1¢

now 98.8¢+7% in their favour

$3.7K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

SELLNO60+ · 99.5¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$3.9K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

SELLNO80+ · 99.5¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$5.1K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO80+ · 98.9¢

now 99.8¢+1% in their favour

$6.4K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO60+ · 98.2¢

now 99.8¢+2% in their favour

$3.2K

3d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO50+ · 98.1¢

now 100¢+2% in their favour

$2.9K

4d0xa108…abd3+$16.8K · 79.1%

BUYNO50+ · 98.8¢

now 100¢+1% in their favour

$1.7K

4d0xa108…abd3+$16.8K · 79.1%

BUYNO40+ · 97.9¢

now 99.8¢+2% in their favour

$2K

4d0xa108…abd3+$16.8K · 79.1%

BUYNO50+ · 98.7¢

now 100¢+1% in their favour

$2.5K

4d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

SELLNO80+ · 99.5¢

now 99.8¢flat since the trade

$2.7K

4d0x49e9…8f85−$38.1K · 69.2%

BUYNO40+ · 95.6¢

now 99.8¢+4% in their favour

$3K

4d0x49e9…8f85−$38.1K · 69.2%

BUYNO40+ · 94.9¢

now 99.8¢+5% in their favour

$2.4K

4d0x49e9…8f85−$38.1K · 69.2%

BUYNO30+ · 88¢

now 98.8¢+12% in their favour

$1.3K

4d0xb26c…0eb0−$4.4K · 60%

BUYNO40+ · 94.4¢

now 99.8¢+6% in their favour

$2.3K

4d0xc8ab…6418−$134.3K · loss

BUYNO80+ · 98.9¢

now 99.8¢+1% in their favour

$3K

5d0x0f2b…665a+$21.3K · 76.7%

BUYNO40+ · 93.8¢

now 99.8¢+6% in their favour

$4.5K

5d0xffa3…3d81+$21K · 51.9%

SELLNO30+ · 82.1¢

now 98.8¢−20% in their favour

$1.2K

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Current outcomes

Signal evidence · 7 days

Price & whale activity

Capital trace